The new guarantors of Syria?

Russia, Iran and Turkey met today without the US to broker negotiation talks with Syrian factions one day after the Russian ambassador to Turkey was assassinated in Ankara, the Turkish capital.

According to a joint statement issued on Tuesday by the countries’ foreign ministers, “Iran, Russia and Turkey express their readiness to facilitate and become guarantors of the prospective agreement being negotiated between the Syrian government and the opposition.”

Could this trifecta lead to an end the five-year Syrian conflict or at least a ceasing of violence? While Turkey has been a supporter of Syrian rebel groups, Russia and Iran have backed the Assad regime, making them the regional powerhouses to represent different groups from the country.

The countries have experienced tensions among them. However, this is beginning to change. Turkish President Recep Tayyıp Erdogan has toned down his once harsh rhetoric of asking Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to resign from power and has scaled back criticism of Russian involvement in the war-torn country.

Russian ambassador Andrei Karlov was assassinated last night at an art gallery in Ankara, Turkey does not seem to have negatively impacted relations between the two countries. The gunman - a Turkish police officer who posed as Karlov’s security detail - was politically motivated as he yelled “Don’t forget Aleppo!” and “Don’t forget Syria!” before being killed by Turkish special forces.

While the countries may be able to work together to hash out a deal and broker several ceasefiire, could this mean that the agreements will continue to be broken and with even more force than before? While the three regional powers may seem to represent sides in brokering the deals, do they have the local understanding necessary to deal with the tribalistic tendencies that are so common in a long-running civil war?